February 24, 2009

What Makes a Stanley Cup Champion?

A look at the past three Stanley Cup champions reveals some goals for the Caps. It also demonstrates that the Caps are ahead of the curve in some areas.

Offense
What's Good: The Caps' attack compares favorably, lead of course by Alex Ovechkin (43 goals) -- who already has equaled a full-season's output by Henrik Zetterberg for the Detroit Red Wings last season. He's sure to pass Teemu Selanne (48) on the 2006-07 Anaheim Ducks and Eric Staal (45) on the 2005-06 Carolina Hurricanes. On those three teams, only Zetterberg failed to also lead his team in points; that honor befell Pavel Datsyuk (31 goals, 66 assists). However, the 'Canes had the most players (four) above 70 points. This year's Caps team already has four (Ovechkin, Alex Semin, Nick Backstrom, Mike Green) above 50 points. Similarly, the Caps' potent power play bodes well for postseason success.

What's Missing: The Wings, with Zetterberg and Johan Franzen, boasted what the Caps seem to crave: a big body (or two, in this case) to park in front of the net -- especially on the power play. Brooks Laich and Chris Clark (when healthy) are good at that, but they're not in class of the champs. Laich is heading in that direction; Clark, not so much.

Defense
What's Good: Green is the total package and gives Caps scoring from the blue line that is virtually unmatched throughout the league. The other defensemen are improving, and in many ways, aren't that different from the 'Canes squad (with Green giving the Caps a big advantage). Tom Poti's return from injury has helped the penalty kill, Jeff Schultz is plus-18 and the Caps have lots of size to go around. Karl Alzner has looked good in his time with the Caps.

What's Missing: Nick Lidstrom, Brian Rafalski, Chris Pronger and Scott Niedermayer. There's nobody in the class of those four (potential) future Hall of Famers in terms of pure defensive talent. Green's game in his own zone has drastically improved, but he's an offensive defenseman. The Caps need a veteran shutdown blueliner to not only help the squad but also tutor Alzner and other youngsters that might come along.

Goaltending
What's Good: Jose Theodore's record this season (23-11-3) compares favorably to that of Chris Osgood (27-9-4) and J.S. Giguere (36-10-8) and he's clearly been heating up as the season progresses. Plus, his finish last season helped propel the Colorado Avalanche into the playoffs -- winning a series with the Minnesota Wild before losing to the Wings.

What's Missing: The Wings' and Ducks' defense helped Osgood (2.09 GAA, .914 save percentage) and Giguere (2.26, .918) boast amazing numbers. And while Theo (2.79, .901) has been heading in the right direction lately, he's still not close to those Stanley Cup-winning tallies. Plus, there's still a group of Caps fans who get nervous every time No. 60 is between the pipes.

Coaching
What's Good: Bruce Boudreau clearly has his finger on the pulse of this team and has done everything right since he dropped from Heaven Hershey last Thanksgiving. He's got tons of playoff experience in the AHL and did well to adjust during last year's series against the Philadelphia Flyers. Amazingly, Peter Laviolette led the 'Canes to the Cup in his second season in Carolina -- the only time the team made the postseason under his watch. It also only took Randy Carlyle two seasons to win in Anaheim and he's guided the Ducks to the playoffs every year he's been behind the bench. (Mike Babcock led the Wings to the Cup in his third season.)

What's Missing: Time. More for the roster to mature than anything else.

Schedule
What's Good: The Caps' penchant for winning consistently and a great home record compare favorably to that of a champion. They haven't been as dominant overall as the Ducks or Wings and won't win the President's Trophy this season, but they have been great against the Eastern Conference and at Verizon Center. The Wings were 29–9–3 last season at the Joe and the Ducks were 26-6-9 at Honda Center the year they won the Cup. The Caps (24-5-1) should equal or pass those marks this time around.

What's Missing: Wins against the West. All but one of the Caps' regulation home losses have come against teams from the other conference and their demeanor during those games is clearly not the same. Their overall 7-10 record against the West is proof. Granted, this (presumably) wouldn't be an issue in the playoffs but the Wings (7-3) and Ducks (6-4) performed well against the East during their Cup-winning seasons.

Conclusion
The Caps' two biggest needs are a veteran shutdown defenseman and a big presence in front of the net. The other thing might just be time for the youngsters to grow up a bit. Keep in mind that both the Wings and Ducks lost in the conference finals the year before winning the Cup and that might be the Caps' fate this season. (The 'Canes Cup win clearly was an anomaly.) This is a franchise built for the long haul and we clearly still haven't reached the top of the Caps' proverbial mountain yet.

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