Lead After First Period Equals Victory

The biggest indicator for postseason success is leading after one period. The Caps have only accomplished that in game three against the New York Rangers, and that's the one game they've won in this series.

Going back to 1998, the Caps are 11-3 when leading after the first period of a playoff game and 3-15 when trailing after the initial stanza. (They're 7-10 when the game is tied.) Two of those three losses when leading after one came in the 2000 playoffs against the Pittsburgh Penguins; the other in the 1998 quarterfinals against the Boston Bruins.

This follows the trend of the last five Stanley Cup champions, who are 9-0 when leading after the first period of the finals. The champions are 9-6 when the game is tied after one and 2-6 when trailing.

Getting that first-period lead has been difficult against the New York Rangers because, for some reason, the Caps come out slowly. In their lone victory in this series, the Caps dominated from the beginning and gave the Rangers no chance. They didn't do that in the other games and had to fight from behind, which is a formula for disaster.

The Caps, barring a history-defying comeback, will be spending another off-season looking for answers. One place to start is to find a proven winner like Chris Drury, who has 17 game-winning goals in the playoffs and his name on the Stanley Cup.

Sergei Fedorov, who won three Stanley Cups with the Detroit Red Wings, has 11 playoff GWGs -- but none since 2000. Alex Ovechkin had two last spring.

Finding a way to win starts with first-period leads. It's something the Caps need to grasp, otherwise history is not on their side.