May 18, 2009

Eastern Conference Finals Preview

The Pittsburgh Penguins and Carolina Hurricanes begin their series tonight at the Igloo. A preview:

Offense: The Pens, in some ways, are facing a team similar to the Caps but without the big names. But what the Canes lack in star power, they gain in heart and grit. Don't get me wrong, the Caps are much better than the Canes -- but that doesn't mean the Pens aren't in for a dogfight. We've seen the Pens' offense: if Evgeni Malkin is on his game, and Crosby keeps crashing the net, then they're tough to stop. But if the Canes can cycle and have Jussi Joniken continue his reprise of the 2006 Olympics, then Carolina's got a good shot. Advantage: Pittsburgh.

Defense: Against the Caps, the Pens did a great job of limiting shots and keeping the puck for long periods of time -- thus preventing the Caps from mounting a sustained attack. Carolina, meanwhile, was able to quell a very potent Boston Bruins offense and, except for games five and six, dominate play for long periods of time. The Canes will need to improve their defense even more -- but they certainly have the capability of doing so. Advantage: Push.

Special Teams: The Pens' power play isn't great (19.7 percent), but the Canes' man advantage is downright anemic (10.4 percent). Conversely, the Canes boast a great PK (90.7 percent), while the Pens are average (81.6 percent) in that regard. Advantage: Push.

Goaltending: Cam Ward knows how to win. He's already captured a Stanley Cup and Conn Smythe Trophy at the tender age of 25 and he's at it again this postseason: 2.22 GAA (third) and .927 save percentage (fourth). Meanwhile, the equally-young Marc-Andre Fleury (2.72 GAA, .901 save percentage) managed to play well enough to beat the Philadelphia Flyers and Caps with some rather pedestrian efforts. Advantage: Carolina.

Intangibles: The Canes may not make the playoffs frequently, but they make it count when they do. This is only their fourth playoff berth this decade, but they used two of their previous opportunities to win the Stanley Cup and lose to the Detroit Red Wings in the finals. (A first-round loss to the New Jersey Devils in 2001 was the lone exception.) The Pens reached the finals last season and are determined to get back there. Home ice won't mean much in this series with two teams that are great on the road. Advantage: Push.

Overall: It only makes sense that a match-up of two lower-seeded, evenly-matched teams would go to the distance. Carolina's the only team other than the Caps to play two game sevens already and it looks like it's headed that way again. Prediction: Carolina in seven.

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