January 25, 2011

Lower Seeds Continue to Thrive in Playoffs

It's become plainly obvious that the Washington Capitals will not approach the 121 points they accumulated last season -- and may not exceed the 108 they racked up during the 2008-09 season. But, believe it or not, that might actually be a good thing.  Let us remember that, despite winning the Southeast Division three straight years, the Caps have won just one playoff series over that span.

But here's the thing: since the lockout, 11 teams seeded sixth or lower have won a first-round series and, in all but one of those seasons, made it to the conference finals.

Last season was the celebration of lower-seeded teams as the seventh-seeded Philadelphia Flyers made the Stanley Cup finals and the eighth-seeded Montreal Canadiens eliminated the Caps and Pittsburgh Penguins before falling to the orange and black. In 2005-06, the eighth-seeded Edmonton Oilers not only made the Stanley Cup finals but came within one win of taking the trophy back to Western Canada.

The successful lower-seeded teams include:

* 98 points (2005-06 Anaheim Ducks, lost conference finals)
* 97 (2008-09 Carolina Hurricanes, lost conference finals)
* 95 (2007-08 Flyers, made conference finals; 2007-08 Colorado Avalanche, won first round; 2005-06 Avalanche, won first round; 2005-06 Oilers, lost Stanley Cup finals)
* 94 (2006-07 New York Rangers, won first round)
* 91 (2008-09 Ducks, lost in second round; 2009-10 Boston Bruins, won first round)
* 88 (2009-10 Flyers, lost in Stanley Cup finals, and 2009-10 Canadiens, lost in conference finals)

All of these teams had to fight to get into the playoffs and then start the postseason on the road. There was no cruising involved.

Therefore, the Caps (with 63 points) have plenty of precedent of not only making the playoffs but gearing up for a longer run than they've ever enjoyed under Bruce Boudreau. They're in prime position, given the list of teams listed above and the Caps' current record, of breaking that recent trend. And ceding the division title might be the first step towards finally accomplishing their goals.

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