March 23, 2011

Looking at Possible First-Round Opponents

As the countdown continues to the beginning of the 2011 NHL playoffs on April 13, the teams the Washington Capitals likely will face in the first round have more or less been narrowed to four: Montreal Canadiens, New York Rangers, Buffalo Sabres or Carolina Hurricanes.

First, a peek at the Caps:

Record: 43-21-10 (96 points)
Last 10 Games: 9-1 (won two straight)
Goals Per Game: 2.69 (20th in NHL)
GAA: 2.36 (third)
Power Play: 16.9 (18th)
Penalty Kill: 85.9 (fourth)

Season Summary: After a rocky first two-thirds of the season, the team has truly found an identity. Amazingly, a defense-first mentality has helped a stagnant offense and power play find its groove and overcome injuries to some of the team's biggest stars. Perhaps the biggest unsung hero in the turnaround has been Michal Neuvirth -- who, despite his youth, has put up stellar numbers: 24-11-4, 2.46 GAA, .915 save percentage and four shutouts. Since the trading deadline, the team has lost but once and enjoyed some solid play from pick-up Dennis Wideman. If the team can get everybody healthy for the playoffs, a long postseason run could ensue.

A look at each possible opponent:

Montreal Canadiens
Record: 40-27-7 (87)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (lost one)
Goals Per Game: 2.66 (22nd)
GAA: 2.49 (8th)
Power Play: 19.4 percent (seventh)
Penalty Kill: 83.6 (ninth)
Season Series: Caps, 2-0-1 (final meeting this coming Saturday in Montreal)
Playoff history: Montreal, 1-0
Only playoff meeting: Montreal, 4-3, in 2010 Eastern Conference Quarterfinals

Prognosis: Much like last year, the team hasn't been scaring anybody -- but the roots are there for another long postseason run. Carey Price has done spendedly as the unquestioned starter in goal (34-25-6, 2.35 GAA, .922 save percentage with eight shutouts), earning an all-star bid and plenty of accolades. This would present another huge challenge for the Caps.

New York Rangers
Record: 40-30-4 (84 points)
Last 10 Games: 7-3 (won five straight)
Goals Per Game: 2.81 (12th)
GAA: 2.39 (fifth)
Power Play: 18.2 percent (13th)
Penalty Kill: 83.2 percent (14th)
Season Series: Rangers, 3-1 (Caps 1-2-1)
Playoff history: Caps, 3-2
Last playoff meeting: Caps, 4-3, in 2009 Eastern Conference Quarterfinals

Prognosis: This is a younger team than one would expect and they're blossoming at the right time. The Caps haven't done well against the Rangers all season, which includes defeats by the scores of 7-0 (Dec. 12) and 6-0 (Feb. 25). The biggest challenge for the Caps against the Rangers would be to overcome John Tortorella's system that has frustrated Washington since the American coach came to Broadway.

Buffalo Sabres
Record: 36-28-9 (81)
Last 10 Games: 6-3-1 (win one)
Goals Per Game: 2.89 (7th)
GAA: 2.84 (19th)
Power Play: 18.5 percent (10th)
Penalty Kill: 82.6 percent (15th)
Season Series: Caps, 3-0-1
Playoff history: Caps, 1-0
Only playoff meeting: Caps, 4-2, in 1998 Eastern Conference Finals

Prognosis: It's been quite an eventful season for the Sabres. Between their longtime GM-Coach tandem of Darcy Regier and Lindy Ruff being under fire for much of the campaign, an ownership change that put the entire franchise in a state of uncertainty and a down season -- at least by his lofty standards -- for all-everything goalie Ryan Miller (31-21-8, 2.63 GAA, .914 save percentage with four shutouts), it hasn't been easy for Buffalo to find a rhythm. That being said, the team is in more of a groove lately and most assuredly would put up quite the fight in a postseason match-up.

Carolina Hurricanes
Record: 34-29-10 (78)
Last 10 Games: 5-4-1 (won two straight)
Goals Per Game: 2.75 (15th)
GAA: 2.90 (22nd)
Power Play: 15.3 percent (26th)
Penalty Kill: 81.4 percent (19th)
Season Series: Caps, 5-0 (final meeting, Tuesday, March 29 at Verizon Center)
Playoff history: None
Last playoff meeting: N/A

Season Summary: This is best-case scenario for the Caps. Between their extreme familiarity with the Hurricanes and their domination of them, the Caps would have the best chance for advancing in a match-up with Carolina, who was three points behind the Sabres for the final playoff spot entering tonight's games. (None of the teams listed here play tonight.) The Hurricanes have been their own worst enemy and continue to struggle to find their groove. But if they can squeeze into the eighth spot, and the Caps can overtake the Philadelphia Flyers for first, Washington would be in good shape.

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