July 8, 2011

Three Reasons to Trade Alex Semin

I've often said that you can find statistics to support any theory, and blogger Neil Greenberg follows that mantra with his recent post, "Statistical analysis: The importance of Alexander Semin." Well, my friend, here is a counter-argument:

Firstly, you don't address the playoffs. In 37 career playoff games, Semin has 12 goals -- and eight have come in two series against the New York Rangers. This past April, he had three goals and one assist against the Blueshirts and then one goal and one assist while being swept by the Tampa Bay Lightning. Against the Montreal Canadians last spring, he had two assists in the seven-game loss. In 2009, he had five goals and three assists against the Rangers, but no goals and six assists against the Pittsburgh Penguins. In 2008, he notched three goals and five assists against the Philadelphia Flyers.

So in his last two postseasons against the Lightning and Canadiens, he's got one goal and three assists. Take away the Rangers, and he's rather pedestrian in the postseason.

Secondly, Semin is incredibly inconsistent. Last season, Semin scored 28 goals, but they came in 20 games -- and he had a 17-game stretch where he didn't notch a goal. During the 2009-10 season, his 40 goals were scored in just 28 games, including just seven goals in November and December combined.

In 2008-09, his 34 goals were scored in -- you guessed it -- 28 games, including five goals in December and January. In 2007-08, his 26 goals were scored in 25 games, and he didn't score his 10th until mid-January.

Finally, Semin's playing style is the antithesis of the teams' approach. All of the players brought to the team, and for that matter many of the holdovers, have some grit with their skill and are mostly responsible in both ends of the ice. And while Semin is a decent penalty killer, he's hardly defensively responsible and has been known to disappear during the course of the game -- even in the offensive zone.

So while Semin's stats may support keeping him on the team, everything else says to trade him. For the upcoming season, trading the enigmatic winger would complete the transformation.

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